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Christmas vs thanksgiving essay
definitely pathological cases of the Outside View. Initially, all of the smartest people headed to Tower One. Even people who honestly know about a fixable case of dead babies cant emit a trustworthy request for attention By this point in our civilizations development, many honest buyers and sellers have left the indignation market entirely; and whats left behind is not, on average. So the honest sellers with reliable cars start to leave the market, which further shifts upward the probability that any given car for sale is a lemon, which makes me less willing to pay for a used car, which incentivizes more honest sellers to leave. Read the Disability Documentation Guidelines.
When Warren Buffett proves really good at stock-picking, everyone rushes to give him their money. If a piece of research will clearly visibly yield lots of citations with a reasonable amount of labor, and make the grantmakers on the committee look good for not too much money committed, then a researcher eager to do it can probably find a grantmaker.
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Instead, you should identify other people who are even more rational than you (on the matter at hand) and maybe Outside View with them, but no one else. This is a failure of Outside-View-ing. The second argues against overuse of the Outside View. We could say, to make the example more precise, that the field is collectively opportunistic in 2 citations per workdayif theres any clearly visible opportunity to do 40 days of work and get 80 citations, somebody in the field will go for. Or: suppose you thought that health care is inefficient and costs way too much. To be very uncharitable, Eliezer seems to be making the same mistake as an investing book which says that you should always buy stock. I didnt think.
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